Tag victory is fraught with risks in mosul offensive

Tag Victory is Fraught with Risks in Mosul Offensive

The Iraqi government's offensive to retake Mosul from the Islamic State (ISIS) has been met with significant resistance, highlighting the complexities and risks involved in achieving a decisive victory.

Risks of Civilian Casualties

The densely populated city of Mosul, with an estimated 1 million residents, poses a significant risk of civilian casualties. The Iraqi military's use of heavy artillery and airstrikes to dislodge ISIS fighters could lead to unintended harm to innocent civilians, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

Risk of ISIS Retrenchment

ISIS is likely to adopt a guerrilla warfare strategy, using booby traps, ambushes, and suicide bombings to inflict maximum damage on Iraqi forces. This could lead to a prolonged and bloody conflict, with both sides suffering heavy losses.

Risk of Sectarian Tensions

The Mosul offensive has already sparked concerns about sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims. The involvement of Shia militias in the fighting has raised fears of revenge attacks against Sunni civilians, potentially destabilizing the region.

Risk of Environmental Damage

The use of heavy artillery and airstrikes in urban warfare poses a significant risk of environmental damage, including the destruction of critical infrastructure, such as water and electricity supplies, and the contamination of soil and water sources.

Risk of ISIS Escape and Proliferation

The possibility of ISIS fighters escaping the city and regrouping in other parts of Iraq or neighboring countries is a significant concern. This could lead to the spread of ISIS's ideology and the perpetuation of violence in the region.

Risk of Political Instability

The outcome of the Mosul offensive could have significant political implications, potentially destabilizing the Iraqi government and exacerbating regional tensions. The involvement of external powers, such as the United States and Iran, could further complicate the situation.

Conclusion

The victory in Mosul is not a guarantee, and the risks involved in achieving a decisive outcome are significant. The Iraqi government, with the support of international partners, must prioritize the protection of civilians, minimize environmental damage, and address the root causes of sectarian tensions to ensure a lasting peace in the region.