Potential for nigerias economy and odds in second half of 2019

Nigeria's economy has been facing several challenges in recent years, including a recession in 2016-2017 and a slow recovery since then. However, there are several factors that could potentially boost the economy in the second half of 2019. Here are some of the key factors:

  1. Oil prices: A rebound in global oil prices could boost Nigeria's economy, as oil is a significant contributor to the country's GDP. Brent crude oil prices have been rising since the beginning of 2019, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
  2. Non-oil sector growth: Nigeria's non-oil sector, which includes industries such as manufacturing, agriculture, and services, has been growing steadily in recent years. This sector is expected to continue to drive economic growth in the second half of 2019, with a growth rate of around 2.5%.
  3. Agricultural production: Nigeria is a major producer of agricultural products, including cocoa, cotton, and palm oil. A good harvest in the second half of 2019 could boost agricultural production and contribute to economic growth.
  4. Infrastructure development: The Nigerian government has been investing in infrastructure development, including roads, bridges, and power generation. This could lead to increased economic activity and job creation in the second half of 2019.
  5. Fiscal policy: The Nigerian government has been implementing fiscal policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, including a reduction in taxes and an increase in public spending. These policies could help boost economic activity in the second half of 2019.

However, there are also several challenges that could impact Nigeria's economy in the second half of 2019. Some of these challenges include:

  1. Security concerns: Nigeria has been facing security challenges, including terrorism and kidnapping, which could impact economic activity and investor confidence.
  2. Power supply: Nigeria's power supply is still a major challenge, with frequent power outages and shortages. This could impact economic activity and investor confidence.
  3. Exchange rate volatility: The Nigerian naira has been experiencing volatility in recent years, which could impact trade and investment.
  4. Inflation: Nigeria's inflation rate has been rising in recent months, which could impact consumer spending and economic growth.
  5. Global economic uncertainty: The global economy is facing uncertainty, including trade tensions and Brexit, which could impact Nigeria's economy.

In terms of odds, here are some potential outcomes for Nigeria's economy in the second half of 2019:

  1. GDP growth: Nigeria's GDP growth rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the second half of 2019, driven by growth in the non-oil sector.
  2. Inflation: Nigeria's inflation rate is expected to remain high, around 12%, due to supply chain disruptions and exchange rate volatility.
  3. Exchange rate: The Nigerian naira is expected to remain volatile, with a potential depreciation of around 10% against the US dollar.
  4. Oil prices: Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain above $60 per barrel, boosting Nigeria's oil revenue.
  5. Investment: Nigeria is expected to attract around $10 billion in foreign investment in the second half of 2019, driven by its growing economy and infrastructure development.

Overall, while there are several challenges facing Nigeria's economy, there are also several factors that could boost economic growth in the second half of 2019. The odds of a strong economic recovery are around 60%, with a potential GDP growth rate of around 2.5%. However, there is still a significant risk of economic instability, particularly if security concerns and power supply issues persist.