Opec to maintain 3 2 growth forecast
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has announced that it will maintain its 2022 growth forecast for global oil demand, despite concerns over the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy.
According to OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the organization expects global oil demand to grow by 3.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2022, which is unchanged from its previous forecast.
OPEC attributed the unchanged forecast to a number of factors, including:
- Stronger-than-expected demand recovery in the second half of 2021: OPEC noted that oil demand has been stronger than expected in recent months, driven by a rebound in economic activity and a decline in COVID-19 cases.
- Improved vaccine distribution: The widespread distribution of COVID-19 vaccines has helped to reduce the impact of the pandemic on global oil demand, OPEC said.
- Increased economic activity: OPEC expects economic activity to continue to recover in 2022, driven by fiscal stimulus packages, monetary policy easing, and a rebound in global trade.
However, OPEC also noted that there are still risks to the forecast, including:
- Potential for new COVID-19 waves: OPEC warned that the emergence of new COVID-19 variants or a decline in vaccine effectiveness could still impact global oil demand.
- Geopolitical tensions: OPEC highlighted the ongoing tensions between major oil-producing countries, such as the United States and Iran, as a potential risk to global oil supply.
- Economic uncertainty: OPEC noted that the global economy remains uncertain, with risks including a potential slowdown in economic growth, a decline in global trade, and a rise in inflation.
Overall, OPEC's decision to maintain its 2022 growth forecast suggests that the organization is cautiously optimistic about the outlook for global oil demand, but is also aware of the potential risks and uncertainties that could impact the forecast.