Israel elections will the arab israeli vote swing the third election in a year

The Israeli Arab vote is a crucial factor in the upcoming elections, and it's expected to play a significant role in determining the outcome of the third election in a year. Here's a breakdown of the situation:

The Arab Israeli population: Arab Israelis make up approximately 20% of Israel's population, with around 1.8 million citizens. They are a significant demographic group, and their votes can sway the outcome of elections.

Historical trends: In previous elections, Arab Israelis have tended to vote for left-wing and center-left parties, such as the Labor Party, Meretz, and the Joint List (a coalition of Arab parties). In the 2019 elections, the Joint List won 13 seats, making it the third-largest party in the Knesset.

Current situation: Ahead of the upcoming elections, the Arab Israeli vote is expected to be more divided than in the past. Several factors are contributing to this:

  1. Split in the Joint List: The Joint List is facing internal divisions, with some members defecting to other parties or running as independents. This could lead to a fragmentation of the Arab Israeli vote.
  2. New parties: Several new parties have emerged, specifically targeting the Arab Israeli vote. These parties, such as the United Arab List (UAL) and the Arab Democratic Party, are vying for support among Arab Israelis.
  3. Shift to the right: Some Arab Israelis are considering voting for right-wing parties, such as Likud or Blue and White, due to concerns about the rising influence of Islamist parties in the region and the perceived threat to Israel's security.

Potential impact on the election outcome: The Arab Israeli vote could swing the election in several ways:

  1. Center-left parties: If the Arab Israeli vote remains loyal to center-left parties, it could help these parties gain more seats and potentially form a government.
  2. Right-wing parties: If Arab Israelis vote for right-wing parties, it could help these parties gain more seats and potentially form a government.
  3. Third-party spoilers: The emergence of new parties targeting the Arab Israeli vote could split the vote and prevent any one party from gaining a majority, leading to a prolonged period of political instability.

Key players: Some key players to watch in the Arab Israeli vote include:

  1. Ayman Odeh: The leader of the Joint List, Odeh is a prominent figure in Arab Israeli politics and has been a vocal critic of the Israeli government's policies towards Arab Israelis.
  2. Ahmed Tibi: A prominent Arab Israeli politician, Tibi is the leader of the UAL and has been a vocal critic of the Israeli government's policies towards Arab Israelis.
  3. Bassam al-Salhi: A former member of the Joint List, al-Salhi is now running as an independent and has been critical of the Joint List's leadership.

In conclusion, the Arab Israeli vote is expected to play a significant role in the upcoming Israeli elections. The outcome of the election will depend on how Arab Israelis choose to vote, and it's likely that the vote will be more divided than in the past.