Could trump win new mexico

While it's unlikely, it's not impossible for Donald Trump to win New Mexico in a presidential election. Here are some reasons why:

  1. Demographic changes: New Mexico has been experiencing demographic changes, including a growing Hispanic population, which could potentially shift the state's political leanings. Trump won 55% of the white vote in New Mexico in 2016, but lost the state overall due to the large Hispanic population.
  2. Trump's popularity among some Hispanic voters: Trump has shown surprising popularity among some Hispanic voters, particularly those who identify as conservative or are concerned about issues like immigration and trade. In 2016, Trump won 35% of the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, which was higher than Mitt Romney's 26% in 2012.
  3. New Mexico's rural areas: Trump performed well in rural areas of New Mexico in 2016, winning 64% of the vote in Otero County and 63% in Lincoln County. These areas tend to be more conservative and may be more receptive to Trump's message.
  4. Economic issues: New Mexico has struggled with economic issues, including high unemployment rates and poverty. Trump's message on economic issues, such as trade and job creation, may resonate with some voters in the state.
  5. Third-party candidates: In 2016, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson won 9% of the vote in New Mexico, which could potentially siphon off votes from Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. If a third-party candidate emerges in 2024, they could potentially split the Democratic vote and help Trump win the state.

However, there are also several reasons why Trump might struggle to win New Mexico:

  1. Democratic stronghold: New Mexico has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, with the party winning every presidential election since 1992. The state has a strong Democratic infrastructure and a large Hispanic population, which tends to vote Democratic.
  2. Strong Democratic candidates: New Mexico has a strong tradition of producing Democratic candidates who are well-liked and respected by voters. In 2018, Democratic candidates won every statewide office, including the governorship and both U.S. Senate seats.
  3. Immigration issues: New Mexico has a large Hispanic population, and immigration issues are likely to be a major concern for many voters in the state. Trump's hardline stance on immigration may alienate some voters who are concerned about the treatment of immigrants and the impact of immigration policy on their communities.
  4. Environmental issues: New Mexico is home to several national parks and monuments, and environmental issues are likely to be a major concern for many voters in the state. Trump's rollbacks of environmental regulations and his support for fossil fuels may be unpopular with some voters who prioritize environmental protection.

In conclusion, while it's possible that Trump could win New Mexico in 2024, it would likely require a combination of factors, including a strong third-party candidate, a weak Democratic candidate, and a shift in the state's demographics. However, given the state's strong Democratic tradition and the likely popularity of Democratic candidates, it's still a long shot for Trump to win the state.