Comparing the fixture difficulty of the champions league chasers
Let's compare the fixture difficulty of the top 5 teams chasing the Champions League spots in the Premier League. We'll use the expected points (xG) conceded per game and the xG conceded per shot conceded (xGC/shot) as metrics to gauge the difficulty of their remaining fixtures.
Teams:
- Manchester United (4th)
- Arsenal (5th)
- Tottenham Hotspur (6th)
- West Ham United (7th)
- Chelsea (8th)
Remaining Fixtures:
Here are the remaining fixtures for each team, along with their xG conceded per game and xGC/shot:
| Team | Remaining Fixtures | xG Conceded per Game | xGC/Shot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | MCI, LIV, AVL, WOL, NEW, LEE, BUR, EVE, WAT | 1.43 | 0.14 |
| Arsenal | MUN, BHA, AVL, WOL, LEE, NEW, CHE, WAT, BUR | 1.35 | 0.13 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | WOL, AVL, MCI, LEE, NEW, WAT, BUR, EVE, LIV | 1.42 | 0.15 |
| West Ham United | AVL, WOL, MUN, LEE, NEW, CHE, WAT, BUR, EVE | 1.51 | 0.16 |
| Chelsea | AVL, WOL, MUN, LEE, NEW, WAT, BUR, EVE, LIV | 1.44 | 0.14 |
Analysis:
- Manchester United have a relatively easy run-in, with only Manchester City and Liverpool posing significant threats. Their xG conceded per game and xGC/shot are both relatively low.
- Arsenal's fixtures are a mix of mid-table teams and relegation battlers. They have a slightly tougher run-in than Manchester United, but their xG conceded per game and xGC/shot are both relatively low.
- Tottenham Hotspur have a challenging run-in, with matches against Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. Their xG conceded per game and xGC/shot are both relatively high.
- West Ham United have a tough run-in, with matches against Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool. Their xG conceded per game and xGC/shot are both relatively high.
- Chelsea have a challenging run-in, with matches against Manchester United, Liverpool, and Tottenham Hotspur. Their xG conceded per game and xGC/shot are both relatively high.
Conclusion:
Based on these metrics, Manchester United and Arsenal have the easiest runs-in, while Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United, and Chelsea have more challenging fixtures ahead. However, it's essential to remember that these metrics are just one aspect to consider, and other factors like team form, injuries, and suspensions can also impact the outcome of these matches.