As demand crunch deepens how far can oil plummet

The million-dollar question!

As the demand crunch deepens, the price of oil can plummet significantly, but the extent of the decline depends on various factors. Here are some possible scenarios:

  1. Supply and demand imbalance: If the demand crunch is severe and persistent, it can lead to a significant surplus of oil in the market. In this scenario, prices could fall sharply, potentially to levels not seen in decades. For example, if the global demand for oil falls by 10-15% due to the pandemic, the price of Brent crude could drop to around $20-25 per barrel.
  2. Storage capacity constraints: If the demand crunch is accompanied by a lack of storage capacity, prices could fall more rapidly. This is because oil producers would need to reduce production to avoid overflowing storage facilities, which would lead to a supply shortage and drive prices down. In this scenario, prices could drop to around $15-20 per barrel.
  3. OPEC+ response: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have a significant impact on the global oil market. If they decide to increase production to fill the supply gap, prices could stabilize or even rise. However, if they fail to respond effectively, prices could continue to fall. In this scenario, prices could drop to around $10-15 per barrel.
  4. Non-OPEC supply: Non-OPEC countries like the United States, Canada, and Brazil have significant oil production capacity. If they increase production to fill the supply gap, prices could stabilize or even rise. However, if they fail to respond, prices could continue to fall. In this scenario, prices could drop to around $5-10 per barrel.
  5. Economic factors: The price of oil is also influenced by economic factors such as global economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. If the global economy enters a recession, oil demand could fall sharply, leading to a significant price decline. In this scenario, prices could drop to around $0-5 per barrel.

To put these scenarios into perspective, here are some historical price levels:

In conclusion, while it's difficult to predict the exact price of oil, a severe demand crunch could lead to a significant price decline, potentially to levels not seen in decades. However, the extent of the decline depends on various factors, including supply and demand imbalances, storage capacity constraints, OPEC+ response, non-OPEC supply, and economic factors.